Chart of the Week: Who Will Win the Game of Thrones?

Nayomi Chibana

Written by:
Nayomi Chibana

Mar 18, 2019
game of thrones characters header wide

The final season of Game of Thrones is finally here and the question on everyone's mind is:

Who will end up on the Iron Throne?

Our team at Visme, a data visualization tool, had a little fun visualizing the probability of each main character ending up on the Iron Throne, calculated using the latest odds published on the betting site Bovada.

Now that the Night King is dead, the odds reveal that Jon Snow is the most likely to end up on the throne, followed by Bran, Daenerys and Sansa.

game of thrones characters who will rule westeros odds infographic april 29

Even Jon and Daenerys' hypothetical baby appeared in the results, coming in seventh place, followed by Arya Stark, Cersei Lannister and Petyr "Littlefinger" Baelish (some believe he faked his death last season using a Faceless Man).

Another burning question on everyone's mind is: Who will end up killing Cersei Lannister in season 8?

Using the same calculation to convert betting odds into implied probabilities, we found that the bookmakers consider Arya Stark to have the highest likelihood of eliminating the second-most hated villain in the series, followed by Jaime, Tyrion and Jon Snow.

Other possibilities that appear high on the list: She commits suicide (16.7%) or she doesn't perish by the end of the series (14.3%).

game of thrones characters who will kill cersei lannister infographic

Being the GoT nerds that we are, we also got to thinking: Who would be the best suited to lead Westeros according to modern-day personality science?

Based on the widely used Myers-Briggs personality type indicators—and information from the MBTI database, a user-driven community with personality profiles for thousands of real and fictional characters—we plotted each of the main characters on one of four quadrants to visualize their leadership potential:

game of thrones characters myers briggs personality test plot

Using a horizontal scale with introverts and extroverts on either extreme and a vertical one to differentiate "sensing" from "intuitive" types, we plotted each of the 16 different personality types.

We also visualized the percentage of leaders who possess each personality type, based on the results of a study of 26,477 leaders conducted by the Center for Creative Leadership.

By deciphering the color-coded matrix chart, you can clearly see that the highest percentage of leaders are either INTJ, ENTJ, ISTJ or ESTJ (the four corners of the diagram). This means that although there are relatively equal percentages of introverted and extroverted leaders, as well as intuitive and sensing leaders, a majority of leaders studied preferred logic over emotions as a way of making decisions, and a planned lifestyle vs. a spontaneous one.

What does this mean for the future of Westeros? Apparently, the best leaders are not always the good guys. In this case, the ones with the highest leadership potential are also some of the least favored to ascend to the Iron Throne.

In the four corners you'll find: the Night King, Petyr "Littlefinger" Baelish, The Mountain, Cersei Lannister, Jaqen H'ghar, Brienne of Tarth and Yara Greyjoy.

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For those interested in how we created these charts, here is a detailed explanation of the process:

We used the latest odds published by the top betting site Bovada, which uses the American method of stating odds, and converted them into implied probabilities to evaluate how likely an outcome is, using an odds converter.

For the third chart, we searched for the personality type of each Game of Thrones character in this MBTI database, which are determined based on the votes of hundreds of members. (You can see the full list below.)

Next, we plotted each of the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types on a 4x4 matrix chart and named each according to certified MBTI® practitioner Susan Storm's classification.

Finally, we created a color-coded scale using Visme by assigning percentage values to a range of colors. These values correspond to the percentage of leaders with each personality type, as determined by the study "Personality Type in Leadership" by the Center for Creative Leadership.

Myers-Briggs Type Indicator for Each Character

  1. Bran Stark - INFP
  2. Jon Snow - ISFP, INFJ
  3. Daenerys Targaryen - INFJ
  4. Sansa Stark - ESFJ
  5. Gendry - ISTP
  6. The Night King - INTJ
  7. Tyrion Lannister - ENTP
  8. Arya Stark - ISTP
  9. Petyr Baelish - INTJ
  10. Samwell Tarly - INFP
  11. Cersei Lannister - ESTJ
  12. Jaime Lannister - ESTP
  13. Varys - INFJ
  14. Davos Seaworth - ISFP
  15. Bronn - ISTP
  16. Brienne Of Tarth - ISTJ
  17. Euron Greyjoy - ESTP
  18. Gilly - ISFP
  19. Jaqen H'ghar - INTJ
  20. Jorah Mormont - ISFJ
  21. Beric Dondarrion - ENFP
  22. Daario Naharis - ESTP
  23. Melisandre - INFJ
  24. The Hound - ISTP
  25. The Mountain - ISTJ
  26. Theon Greyjoy - ESFP
  27. Tormund Giantsbane - ESTP
  28. Yara Greyjoy - ESTJ

Your Turn

Who do you think will end up on the Iron Throne? Do you agree with our assessment? Give us your best evidence-backed predictions below.

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    About the Author

    Nayomi Chibana is a journalist and writer for Visme’s Visual Learning Center. Besides researching trends in visual communication and next-generation storytelling, she’s passionate about data-driven content.

    3 responses to “Chart of the Week: Who Will Win the Game of Thrones?”

    1. Anees Shah says:

      Pirated versions of Game of Thrones can infect you with viruses. Once again, hackers have taken advantage of the anxiety that fans of the Game Of Thrones GOT have, since they have several malware in the supposed first episode of the last season.

    2. FB says:

      Baelich is dead lol

    3. Christian Milbank says:

      Cool stuff, but the probabilities need to be adjusted so they don’t add up to a number greater than 100%.

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